Early in August, equity markets experienced a sudden spike in volatility, where volatility reached levels unseen since the COVID-19 crash. This was caused by a significant unwinding of the Yen carry trade. The unwinding was triggered after the Bank of Japan (“BOJ”) unexpectedly raised interest rates, where a sharp appreciation in the Japanese Yen followed. Traders who borrowed Yen cheaply then had to sell off their investments to pay back their borrowings. The situation worsened when weaker-than-expected US employment data caused the greenback to depreciate further against the Yen. Shortly after the sharp market decline, the BOJ has given comfort to the public that they will not hike interest rates further while financial markets are unstable. Thus, we are of the opinion that as of now, the carry trade should not cause further volatility.

We are cautiously optimistic about the market consolidation. The reason for the caution is due to the still high valuation of the broad US equity market despite increasingly slowing fundamentals and economic data. We will continue to watch near-term trends given that a broad recovery in equity markets normally results in bullish short-term sentiment.